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Corpses on Everest
There is an internet meme which simply reads: “Every corpse on Mount Everest was once an extremely motivated person”.
While parodying motivational posters, it is also – probably unintentionally – an insight into the fallacy of analysing success. An analysis of people who successfully scaled Mount Everest, for example, might reveal a list of common […]
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The pressure to attack
All clubs recognise that football is a results industry, but many would also say that providing entertainment is more important than it has ever been. Clubs and leagues’ competition is no longer just other teams or even sports, it’s often TV box sets and video games.
This shift has coincided with an era of coaches […]
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Kasparov’s Law
In 1997, IBM’s chess-playing computer Deep Blue became the first machine to beat a world champion, in Garry Kasparov. Since then, computers have become part of the fabric of the game, competing in tournaments as well as providing training assistance for players.
‘Freestyle’ tournaments have also grown in popularity, where humans compete both with and against […]
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A zero-sum game
There is an old (and frankly pretty weak) joke about two campers who are confronted by a bear. On assessing their predicament, one of the campers quietly starts to put on his trainers, removing his heavy walking boots in the process. The other asks, with incredulity, “surely you don’t think you can outrun that bear?”
“I […]
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The rule of thumb
Following the 2008 financial crash, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane looked into what factors caused the crisis. He discovered that breaching the regulations set out in Basel II – a complex 347-page document that attempted to ensure banks remained safe – proved a less effective predictor of failure than a crude rule of […]
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Rating our scouts
Player recruitment is a process that should ideally combine objectivity and subjectivity. Both aspects, however, should regularly come under suitable scrutiny and review: we should question whether we are looking at the right data, and we should question the predictions of our scouts.
While the former can require detailed statistical checks, the latter needn’t be an […]
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The impact manager
We know from our research that, in the long run, managerial changes on average make little difference to the performance of a team. That isn’t to say, however, that smart hires can’t turn a struggling team around.
When we look through our database of managers who did improve performance in their first 20 matches in charge, […]
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The distant GM
The ability to remain objective and view information dispassionately is central to any robust decision-making process. At 21st Club we frequently expound the benefits of getting an ‘outside view’ when setting strategic objectives or making other major decisions. But what if clubs went further and more fully incorporated the role of ‘the outsider’ into their […]
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Controlling the uncontrollable
It is an unarguable fact that we can win or lose football matches due to factors that are outside of our control. We exert significant influence on results through, for example, team selection, motivation and sound coaching but on any given day we can only leave marginal penalty calls, the opposition keeper’s performance and that […]
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The profit-utility trade-off
As a sports owner or director of a team it is crucial to know the purpose of our organisation. Are we there to make a profit, or are we there to win trophies? The ideal answer would of course be both but whilst everyone could be profitable, by definition not everyone can be a winner.
The […]
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