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Player contribution

Currently browsing: Player contribution
  • 05 Dec 2018

    An open door policy

    There is a moment in the closing stages of Matt Santos’ Presidential campaign in the seventh series of the West Wing where Santos’ campaign manager, Josh Lyman, and the Vice-Presidential candidate, Leo McGarry, are discussing where to allocate their remaining ad. budget.

    “It feels like we’re closing a lot of doors”, Santos observes as the discussion […]

  • 11 Oct 2018

    The finest Belgian chocolate

    In the months after a World Cup, we tend to adapt our view as to where the world’s talent hotspots are. It was therefore no surprise that after Russia we’ve all been keen to understand what differentiates the production lines of France, Belgium and Croatia. For some clubs, their recent success provides a good justification […]

  • 14 Jun 2018

    How to forecast the World Cup

    Predicting the outcome of the World Cup is difficult. There aren’t that many international matches, and the squads are constantly changing anyway. At 21st Club, we have two different approaches for forecasting international competitions.

    Our League of Nations model incorporates results from national team matches, including tournaments, qualifiers and friendlies, to estimate how good every national […]

  • 10 May 2018

    The easiest loss to take

    Spot the link between club, person and season:

    Borussia Dortmund and Shinji Kagawa (2012-13)

    Atlético Madrid and Radamel Falcao (2013-14)

    Juventus and Antonio Conte (2014-15)

    Atlético Madrid and Arda Turan (2015-16)

    Juventus and Paul Pogba (2016-17)

    Liverpool and Philippe Coutinho (2017-18)

    The answer, obviously: the player or coach left that club during or at the start of that season. Eagle-eyed readers will […]

  • 19 Apr 2018

    The best player we know

    Imagine the scene. You’ve just announced your new signing. The social media team have outdone themselves with the most creative announcement yet and there are photos of the player holding aloft their new shirt plastered all over twitter. You’re satisfied. Optimism is high for the season ahead, buoyed by your confidence that you have just […]

  • 04 Jan 2018

    Predictions for 2018

    After reviewing the year that has been, we’ve made some predictions for 2018:

    Don’t expect miracles, Liverpool

    The world’s most expensive defender, Virgil van Dijk, will have a limited impact on Liverpool’s defensive output. Our Player Contribution model expects the Reds to concede 2 fewer goals per season with the Dutchman as a regular starter. In truth, […]

  • 29 Dec 2017

    A year in review

    From Mo Salah’s expected impact to the dramatic turnaround in fortunes of Fortuna Sittard, and what Chile should learn from Germany. A few standout insights from 2017:

    Of the most expensive Premier League signings, Mo Salah was projected to have a bigger impact than the likes of Morata and Lacazette – but less than Lukaku. After […]

  • 10 Aug 2017

    The point of Neymar

    As European football restarts after the summer break, club’s’ performance expectations have been realigned based on the extent of their offseason spending.

    While it is true that signings can often have a significant impact on a team, the points value of a new signing is generally overstated. One of the reasons for this is that league […]