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Currently browsing: Heuristics
  • 19 Jan 2017

    The endowment effect

    At this time of year, it is worth remembering that there is a sizeable disconnect between the number of transfer rumours reported, and the number of trades that actually occur.

    One simple explanation for this is that the level of evidence required to legitimately report a ‘rumour’ is very low. Another is that the rumours may […]

  • 05 Jan 2017

    A little less inefficient

    Just like people tend to believe that the country they live in is better than most, we tend to overestimate the relative strength of our own league, and so overlook transfer targets who could improve our squad. There’s a reason why players bought from strong clubs tend to be more successful at their new club. […]

  • 08 Dec 2016

    The cost of a contract

    Last week, investigations by The Sunday Times revealed some of the finer details of bonuses within players’ contracts. While perhaps not a surprise to those working inside the game, the revelations provoked much discussion about their influence on player behaviour.

    The truth is that these clauses are the final details in a lengthy and often costly […]

  • 13 Oct 2016

    Confidently wrong

    One of the challenges in prediction – or indeed estimating anything where there are a number of unknowns – is that we all suffer from overconfidence. It’s the reason why 93% of drivers think they’re better than average or that project planning often underestimates the real completion time.

    Equally, imagine a poll asking the CEOs of […]