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Cognitive biases

Currently browsing: Cognitive biases
  • 09 Aug 2018

    Bounceback-‘ability’

    After his side climbed the table from 22nd to 6th in 2004, then-Crystal Palace manager Iain Dowie famously coined the term ‘bouncebackability’ to praise his side’s impressive rebound. The term has stuck – it even entered the Oxford English Dictionary the following year – and is now attached to any team who comes back from […]

  • 12 Apr 2018

    The irony of Moneyball

    The irony of Moneyball is that it is a story, and the Oakland A’s management hated stories.

    That story is now well-told:

    The antagonists – old school scouts – used narratives (“ugly girlfriend”, “presence”, “a tools guy”) to draw conclusions on players.
    The protagonists – Bill James, Billy Beane and sabermetricians – used data to try […]

  • 05 Apr 2018

    The big game error

    After identifying a player that has the potential improve our team, we often want to see how he responds in different circumstances. How does he perform away from home, for example, or in matches where the team is expected to dominate? We often place a lot of value in a player’s ability to step up […]

  • 01 Mar 2018

    Attack, attack, attack

    Last Wednesday, Roma led 1-0 at half time against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League. Their coach Eusebio di Francesco urged his team to continue attacking; not only had they outshot the Ukranians 9-4, they’d created by far the better chances. Roma had an opportunity to put the tie to bed.

    Within seven second half minutes […]

  • 31 May 2017

    The importance of self-awareness

    In a recent article for The Guardian, Oliver Burkeman reported on some of the work being done by Tasha Eurich, an organisational psychologist, author and expert on the subject of self-awareness.
    According to Eurich, 95% of people think they’re self-aware but only 10-15% of us really are. If we’re not self-aware then we only have a […]

  • 24 May 2017

    Because thinking is hard

    Back in January we wrote about some of the cognitive biases that can hinder our better judgement when recruiting new players. For example, we might overvalue experience – because know-how feels safe and so we assume it’s important – or be overly optimistic about a new player because we desperately want the signing to work out.
    Since […]

  • 02 Feb 2017

    The joy of misplaced optimism

    It never ceases to amaze us as to why footballers choose to shoot so regularly from outside the penalty area, when less than 4 in 100 of these attempts are scored.

    Or why top-division clubs continue to use a substantial amount of scarce resource into scouting lower and weaker leagues for peak-age players, when the relative […]

  • 05 Jan 2017

    A little less inefficient

    Just like people tend to believe that the country they live in is better than most, we tend to overestimate the relative strength of our own league, and so overlook transfer targets who could improve our squad. There’s a reason why players bought from strong clubs tend to be more successful at their new club. […]