The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
When hiring a head coach, besides looking at performance and playing style it is useful to look at their previous record in the transfer market. While their role in the recruitment process might vary from ‘actively involved’ to a ‘pure coach’, we can infer from the data how they have handled different recruitment scenarios.
The Economist published an article last week exploring which head coaches are able to consistently lead their teams to overperform the overall talent level in the squad. This is one of the most important functions of a head coach, but not the only one. As we have argued before, in addition to winning on the […]
Liverpool’s prospects of winning their first league title in 29 years have seemingly been hit in recent weeks by injuries in defensive positions. Fortunately for them, they have a couple of versatile players like Fabinho and James Milner who can capably cover for Joe Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Their versatility helps negate the need for […]
You’re probably thinking: not another debate about Ronaldo and Messi. Believe me, we’re as bored as you. But we do think there’s a lesson in their international goalscoring records that clubs can use in their player recruitment.
Ronaldo has 20 more goals than Messi for his country – 25 if you exclude penalties – and even […]
What we love doing more than anything else us helping people prepare for risk and uncertainty, and so with that in mind we’ve made some predictions for the year ahead.
The closest title race in Europe is the Bundesliga’s
After a few years of slightly underwhelming title races in Europe’s biggest leagues, two underdog challengers have emerged […]
In most walks of life it is customary during this brief lull in festivities to reflect on our experiences during the past year – the achievements, the milestones, the memories. Football’s hectic fixture schedule makes it trickier to indulge in such cathartic reflection, but nevertheless I managed to carve out some time this week to reflect on our own achievements here at 21st Club and […]
The best possible signing is when there was no one younger, better, and cheaper available. But do we know when this is the case?
A global database of players can help. In an instant, it’s clearly easier to know who is younger than our current preferred option. Our player valuation and salary expectation models can […]
Smart clubs know that results do not always reflect performance, and that in turn teams that are performing well will over time get better results than those that are performing badly – regardless of recent results.
The question is how we measure performance. Managers often speak about ‘creating the better chances’ in post-match interviews following […]
There is a moment in the closing stages of Matt Santos’ Presidential campaign in the seventh series of the West Wing where Santos’ campaign manager, Josh Lyman, and the Vice-Presidential candidate, Leo McGarry, are discussing where to allocate their remaining ad. budget.
“It feels like we’re closing a lot of doors”, Santos observes as the discussion […]
It feels like whichever way we turn right now we’re surrounded by uncertainty.
In the UK it’s impossible to escape Brexit, with Theresa May this week warning MPs that they have to decide whether to back her Brexit deal or open the door to more uncertainty. While overseas, the ongoing trade war between U.S.-China continues […]