The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
Football sometimes provides too many blueprints for success. In any given season, a team we’re looking to emulate might succeed for many different reasons, so it helps to look at how a typical benchmark club achieves success, and use that as a basis for our strategy.
For example, we are often asked by boardrooms of promoted […]
After a summer in which leading clubs made some clear strategic choices, the 21st Club Intelligence team sat down to discuss what we should be on the lookout for in the 2019-20 season after the summer’s activity.
Omar: Right – 2019-20 has come by quick! Where to start – how about with the transfer market?
Alex: I’ve […]
How much is Eden Hazard worth? Real Madrid’s view is that he’s worth £90m, and it seems to be in line with the transfer market and media consensus. But why is he worth that much? The question we should be asking ourselves when signing a new player is: how much will he improve the team? […]
As we reach the last few weeks of the transfer window, the pressure to get deals completed in time can lead to rushed negotiations. How much should you be willing to spend and at what point are you overpaying for a player?
Clubs spend more on a player based on how transformative they expect them to […]
We have some exciting news!
Following our recent London relocation, we’re thrilled to announce that we’re now expanding overseas as we continue to deliver on our global mission to change the conversation in football.
We recognise that if we’re to become more global, then we also need to become more local. So earlier this summer, we opened […]
Professional sports leagues aspire to be the best in the world. Naturally, leagues are mindful of methods to improve their product and become (or remain) top tier. As a result, they can find themselves turning to other leagues and other sports for ideas – borrowing tactics that appear successful; avoiding those deemed as failures.
As professional […]
At the core of the Netherlands’ impressive run to the Women’s World Cup final was a group of four Arsenal players: Vivianne Miedema, Daniëlle van de Donk, Dominique Bloodworth, and Sari van Veenendaal. The Netherlands are far from the first national team that has leveraged a club connection, but could domestic clubs also take advantage […]
When Matthijs de Ligt eventually signs for Juventus, for a reported €80m, the consensus opinion will be that they’ve bought the best under 21 defender in the world, and a player that is likely to become the best centre back in the world. But how certain can we be that this will be the case?
Evaluating player value is difficult because there are a lot of unknowns. We can’t know ahead of time whether a player will adapt to a new environment, get injured, or fail to develop, so the downside risk to every transfer is significant. Equally, a player might develop into something much greater than what we expected […]
“The stockmarket is a risky and complicated place. For more than a century many investors have trusted financial experts to pick the best shares for them, in return for a hefty fee. But even the experts can get it badly wrong” wrote The Economist earlier this month. And while decisions made on a trading floor on stocks […]