The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
A lot is discussed about player wages and the eye-watering sums they receive in compensation for their performances on the pitch. Recently released salaries in Serie A revealed Cristiano Ronaldo earns €31m per annum – 74% more than the second-highest earner – 20-year-old Matthijs de Ligt (€8m).
But how important is our league when it comes […]
From prior research, we know the sole act of changing a coach does little to guarantee performance impact over the long run at an average club.
However the right coach in the right environment can prove to be significant, particularly over shorter horizons of a couple years. Such increases in performance can boost a club into […]
We know that the league table at the start of the season is skewed by the quality of opponents that we have faced, and we often accordingly urge caution. But rather than ignore the table altogether, the use of predictive models can help us better assess results to date and, crucially, potential results to come.
Powering international trade is the idea of “comparative advantage”: a country benefits by concentrating on the commodity that it can produce most efficiently, exporting this good, and then using the proceeds to buy in the commodities it is less efficient at producing. Even if another country is more efficient all-round and can produce everything at […]
We all know that money has a big influence on our team’s performance; we can only dream as high as our budget allows us to do. Nevertheless, there are still teams that punch above their weight. What lessons can we learn from the most efficient teams in the world?
Our Efficiency Rankings enable us to compare […]
Manchester United are back, Lampard is too inexperienced, Maupay is a bargain, and so on.
After forming opinions all summer long we often completely reject them after watching just one performance of the new season: but should we? Do we overreact to early season results, or do we sometimes actually underreact?
The betting markets help us monitor […]
Football sometimes provides too many blueprints for success. In any given season, a team we’re looking to emulate might succeed for many different reasons, so it helps to look at how a typical benchmark club achieves success, and use that as a basis for our strategy.
For example, we are often asked by boardrooms of promoted […]
After a summer in which leading clubs made some clear strategic choices, the 21st Club Intelligence team sat down to discuss what we should be on the lookout for in the 2019-20 season after the summer’s activity.
Omar: Right – 2019-20 has come by quick! Where to start – how about with the transfer market?
Alex: I’ve […]
How much is Eden Hazard worth? Real Madrid’s view is that he’s worth £90m, and it seems to be in line with the transfer market and media consensus. But why is he worth that much? The question we should be asking ourselves when signing a new player is: how much will he improve the team? […]
As we reach the last few weeks of the transfer window, the pressure to get deals completed in time can lead to rushed negotiations. How much should you be willing to spend and at what point are you overpaying for a player?
Clubs spend more on a player based on how transformative they expect them to […]