Get the latest news and insights from 21st Club

Please read our Privacy Policy carefully to understand how we use your data. You can opt-out of our marketing communication at any time.

Our view

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

Now Available

Changing the Conversation
21st Club presents a collection of insights for football club boardrooms

Changing the Conversation

Order Now

Createspace Amazon
  • 21 Feb 2019

    Is the smart money on Solskjaer?

    Manchester United will have a big decision to make in the summer, and they might be able to find help from an unusual source: the betting markets.

    The odds of Premier League matches are akin to a financial market, with the smartest and well-funded professional gamblers using all the available information to predict the likelihood of […]

  • 14 Feb 2019

    Too early to buy?

    As the transfer market becomes increasingly efficient, clubs have moved to buying younger and younger players. The quest for transfer success has led to what is effectively an informational arms race between the top clubs, who have invested heavily in worldwide scouting operations and cutting-edge quantitative analysis teams, all in order to identify the best […]

  • 07 Feb 2019

    Our own Frenkie de Jongs

    Football clubs over the last twenty years have operated under a simple business model: win matches, and the fans, sponsors and prize money will follow. And yet while these income streams are bigger than ever, clubs all over the world are now increasingly dependent on a fourth source of money: the transfer market.

    According to UEFA’s […]

  • 31 Jan 2019

    A wheeler-dealer you can trust

    When hiring a head coach, besides looking at performance and playing style it is useful to look at their previous record in the transfer market. While their role in the recruitment process might vary from ‘actively involved’ to a ‘pure coach’, we can infer from the data how they have handled different recruitment scenarios.

    For […]

  • 23 Jan 2019

    When winning is not enough

    The Economist published an article last week exploring which head coaches are able to consistently lead their teams to overperform the overall talent level in the squad. This is one of the most important functions of a head coach, but not the only one. As we have argued before, in addition to winning on the […]

  • 17 Jan 2019

    The hidden player

    Liverpool’s prospects of winning their first league title in 29 years have seemingly been hit in recent weeks by injuries in defensive positions. Fortunately for them, they have a couple of versatile players like Fabinho and James Milner who can capably cover for Joe Gomez and Trent Alexander-Arnold. Their versatility helps negate the need for […]

  • 10 Jan 2019

    Messi peso, Ronaldo euro

    You’re probably thinking: not another debate about Ronaldo and Messi. Believe me, we’re as bored as you. But we do think there’s a lesson in their international goalscoring records that clubs can use in their player recruitment.

    Ronaldo has 20 more goals than Messi for his country – 25 if you exclude penalties – and even […]

  • 04 Jan 2019

    Predictions for 2019

    What we love doing more than anything else us helping people prepare for risk and uncertainty, and so with that in mind we’ve made some predictions for the year ahead.

    The closest title race in Europe is the Bundesliga’s

    After a few years of slightly underwhelming title races in Europe’s biggest leagues, two underdog challengers have emerged […]

  • 31 Dec 2018

    Reflections on 2018

    In most walks of life it is customary during this brief lull in festivities to reflect on our experiences during the past year – the achievements, the milestones, the memories. Football’s hectic fixture schedule makes it trickier to indulge in such cathartic reflection, but nevertheless I managed to carve out some time this week to reflect on our own achievements here at 21st Club and […]

  • 20 Dec 2018

    Younger, better, cheaper

    The best possible signing is when there was no one younger, better, and cheaper available. But do we know when this is the case?

    A global database of players can help. In an instant, it’s clearly easier to know who is younger than our current preferred option. Our player valuation and salary expectation models can […]