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Our view

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Changing the Conversation
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  • 18 Jul 2019

    A Magic Gini Lamp?

    Professional sports leagues aspire to be the best in the world. Naturally, leagues are mindful of methods to improve their product and become (or remain) top tier. As a result, they can find themselves turning to other leagues and other sports for ideas – borrowing tactics that appear successful; avoiding those deemed as failures.
    As professional […]

  • 11 Jul 2019

    Quadruple Dutch

    At the core of the Netherlands’ impressive run to the Women’s World Cup final was a group of four Arsenal players: Vivianne Miedema, Daniëlle van de Donk, Dominique Bloodworth, and Sari van Veenendaal. The Netherlands are far from the first national team that has leveraged a club connection, but could domestic clubs also take advantage […]

  • 04 Jul 2019

    How good will de Ligt be?

    When Matthijs de Ligt eventually signs for Juventus, for a reported €80m, the consensus opinion will be that they’ve bought the best under 21 defender in the world, and a player that is likely to become the best centre back in the world. But how certain can we be that this will be the case?

    How […]

  • 27 Jun 2019

    Three principles for player transfers

    Evaluating player value is difficult because there are a lot of unknowns. We can’t know ahead of time whether a player will adapt to a new environment, get injured, or fail to develop, so the downside risk to every transfer is significant. Equally, a player might develop into something much greater than what we expected […]

  • 20 Jun 2019

    How to get lucky in the transfer market

    “The stockmarket is a risky and complicated place. For more than a century many investors have trusted financial experts to pick the best shares for them, in return for a hefty fee. But even the experts can get it badly wrong” wrote The Economist earlier this month. And while decisions made on a trading floor on stocks […]

  • 13 Jun 2019

    Intentional inequality

    Common sense tells us that paying 90% of our budget on one player and then spreading the remainder over the rest would not enable us to compete. But, neither would paying everyone the same as it would prevent us from attracting those key players that often make the difference in performance, while also leaving a […]

  • 07 Jun 2019

    Women’s World Cup predictions

    Ahead of the Women’s World Cup kicking off tonight, our intelligence team have looked at the players and form of the teams and compiled some predictions for the tournament.

    The Favourites

    The 21st Club model rates the United States as the best team in the world. France aren’t far behind them though, and we have the hosts […]

  • 30 May 2019

    O Gaffer, my Gaffer!

    Maritime tradition states that a captain holds the responsibility for the ship and everyone aboard. If the ship starts sinking, the captain is expected to be the last one to leave, providing quite the incentive to keep ships afloat.

    For organizations not cast out to sea, alignment of incentives between “ship” and “captain” becomes paramount […]

  • 22 May 2019

    Do you really need a number 9?

    When recruiting new players, the first thing that comes to our mind is usually their position. When we try to articulate what players we are looking for, it’s natural to think along the lines of “we need a striker who can drop deep” or “we are looking for a fullback who is great at overlapping […]