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Our view

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Changing the Conversation
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Changing the Conversation

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  • 21 Nov 2019

    Upward mobility

    Two points off Real Madrid and Barcelona at the top of La Liga, Real Sociedad are flying high under Imanol Alguacil this season.
    Alguacil’s managerial career started out at Sociedad in 2011, where he worked his way up through various positions in the youth team setup to become manager of the B team in Spain’s third […]

  • 14 Nov 2019

    Buying potential

    When signing new players, it is tempting to make a judgment based on their past performance – after all, the only concrete data we have about a player’s performance is what they have done in the past. However, ideally we should base our decisions on a player’s future forecast performance, not his past performance.

    Our previous […]

  • 07 Nov 2019

    The disappearance of the number 10

    The number 10 has often been seen as the most creative and flamboyant player on the pitch. Graceful movement and a deft touch, they opened up the possibility of football being an art where simplicity should be treasured. But what’s happened to the trequartista, enganche or free-role playmaker over the years since the game has […]

  • 31 Oct 2019

    Why football is better than rugby

    “Football is the only sport you can have 30 chances to 2 and still draw or even lose,” said a frustrated Pep Guardiola after a 2-2 draw with Tottenham in August. “In basketball, tennis, golf if you do what we did against Spurs, you win. That’s why this sport is so fascinating.”
    Guardiola isn’t wrong – […]

  • 17 Oct 2019

    X strategy

    Underachievement is easier to spot and much more talked about than overachievement in football, at least at times. Last season Real Madrid changed three managers and suffered their worst La Liga points total (68) since 2001-02. On the other side of Madrid, and much less talked about, Getafe finished 5th (59) and missed out on […]

  • 10 Oct 2019

    The Curious case of Mohamed Salah

    Since his Player of the Year winning season of 2017/18, Mohamaed Salah has divided opinion. In the last 14 months he has continued to be the biggest direct contributor to Liverpool’s attack with 46 goals and assists across the Premier League and Champions League (Mane 35 and Firmino 31) yet the fans seem to be […]

  • 03 Oct 2019

    One-hit wonders

    Benchmarking the productivity of our academy can be tough. Only a small number of players might break through to our first team, and it’s not always easy keeping track of departed players. What’s more, we often only immediately recall a handful of players produced – but do they actually represent the wider productivity of the […]

  • 26 Sep 2019

    Leagues, not Cups

    League competitions are unquestionably the most important indicator of domestic success for football clubs. No one would seriously argue that Wigan Athletic were the best team in England in 2012-13, or that Eintracht Frankfurt were the best team in Germany in 2017-18, or that Rennes were the best team in France in 2018-19, despite these […]

  • 19 Sep 2019

    The price to pay for talent

    A lot is discussed about player wages and the eye-watering sums they receive in compensation for their performances on the pitch. Recently released salaries in Serie A revealed Cristiano Ronaldo earns €31m per annum – 74% more than the second-highest earner – 20-year-old Matthijs de Ligt (€8m).
    But how important is our league when it comes […]