The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow
We all want to be able to predict the future. The better you can predict the future, the more control you have once it arrives.
Every allocation of resources is a bet on what’s to come. Liverpool invested in sophisticated analytics and it paid off – other clubs are now following suit.
Amidst the rush to innovate […]
As the most disrupted season in memory comes to a conclusion, our attention turns to the transfer market. The 21st Club Intelligence team sat down to discuss the trends we expect to see this summer
Omar: We’re entering potentially the most uncertain transfer window in the history of the game. Time to look into the crystal balls […]
Rasmus Ankersen and I recently discussed how the concept of an R number – used by governments during the coronavirus crisis to predict the number of future cases – is applicable to businesses. Every organisation knows that what we achieve in June is not just the outcome of what we did in June, and sports […]
21st Club Co-Founder, Rasmus Ankersen, provides his thoughts on finding a metric that detects your problem before it becomes too late to fix
17 years ago Michael Lewis published his bestselling book Moneyball in which he described how Oakland Athletics used statistical models to achieve a competitive edge. Through statistical analysis Oakland Athletics learned that one […]
As La Liga, Serie A and the Premier League line up to join the Bundesliga in resuming play, all eyes have been on Germany to try to work out what the impact of playing behind closed doors has been. Why has home teams’ win percentage in the Bundesliga almost halved?
It’s not that home teams have […]
As the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded this year, on-pitch football activity slowed and off-pitch work shifted into overdrive. The M&A space has been a particularly busy area in recent months, as boardrooms on both buy- and sell-side work out how to survive and thrive in this new and evolving environment.
Over just the last handful of weeks, […]
The last 2 months have given us time to reflect on improving old processes but with football beginning to return we wanted to shift our attention to the future. Specifically, we wanted to look at the Ballon d’Or, the most prestigious individual award a player can win, and ask ourselves, what could it look like […]
One of the outcomes of the Covid crisis is that organisations in football will have to work collaboratively to restore the health of the sport. One such collaboration may be formal partnerships between clubs; we’ve explored why, and how to go about it.
Based on our conversations in the market, we know that ownership groups are […]
COVID-19 has forced the world into collective lockdown and created a chasm in the sporting calendar. Sports organisations the world over are scrambling to find a way forward, while trying to limit the economic damage in the short term.
Asia is leading the way in finding a route out of the crisis, with South Korea’s K-League […]
After the International Football Association Board’s decision last week, leagues can now allow up to five substitutions per game rather than the usual three. We look at some of the potential consequences should leagues implement the new rule.
Which teams would benefit the most?
Squads with the greatest strength in depth are the most obvious beneficiaries. This […]