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Our view

The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

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Changing the Conversation
21st Club presents a collection of insights for football club boardrooms

Changing the Conversation

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  • 16 Jan 2020

    One step at a time

    Takumi Minamino’s journey from Japan to Merseyside has, on the face of it, been relatively simple.  Starting his professional career at Cerezo Osaka in his native Japan, it has only taken two transfers to find himself part of a Liverpool team rated as the strongest team in the world by almost everyone, including 21st Club’s […]

  • 09 Jan 2020

    The import-export business

    We often assess clubs’ efficiency by looking at how well they perform given their wage budget, or revenues. But most clubs are constrained at a more fundamental level by the league they are in. There is a strong relationship between a country’s GDP and its clubs’ revenues. The challenge then for smaller leagues is to […]

  • 24 Dec 2019

    The undervalued team of the decade

    With the end of the decade upon us, we are all thinking about the best teams, players, and moments of the past ten years. Naturally, a consensus emerges over time and most lists of the best players of the decade tend to be slight variations on the same few players. We wanted to take a […]

  • 13 Dec 2019

    January sales? Think again

    According to our analysis, deals completed in January have on average come at a 39% premium among the big 5 leagues in the last four years. This follows the widely held view that the January transfer window is inflated and should be avoided where possible – unless unforeseen circumstances have left your club in desperate […]

  • 05 Dec 2019

    Best tickets into European Competition

    Consumers today are more savvy than ever. As prospective buyers, we rarely buy the first product we find. Instead we often dig around through ratings, reviews, and other evidence-based research prior to deciding what is worth buying and whether to transact. Shouldn’t the same approach exist for prospective football club investors?

     

    Football clubs are most attractive […]

  • 28 Nov 2019

    Be the Airbnb of football

    There are conventions that govern any industry. In the world of hotels, one convention is that you own real estate. Another is that you have someone greet guests to check them in. There are countless others – or there were, until Airbnb decided to break them. They effectively asked: what if you didn’t have real […]

  • 21 Nov 2019

    Upward mobility

    Two points off Real Madrid and Barcelona at the top of La Liga, Real Sociedad are flying high under Imanol Alguacil this season.
    Alguacil’s managerial career started out at Sociedad in 2011, where he worked his way up through various positions in the youth team setup to become manager of the B team in Spain’s third […]

  • 14 Nov 2019

    Buying potential

    When signing new players, it is tempting to make a judgment based on their past performance – after all, the only concrete data we have about a player’s performance is what they have done in the past. However, ideally we should base our decisions on a player’s future forecast performance, not his past performance.

    Our previous […]

 

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