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Reacting to Week 1 results

Manchester United are back, Lampard is too inexperienced, Maupay is a bargain, and so on.

After forming opinions all summer long we often completely reject them after watching just one performance of the new season: but should we? Do we overreact to early season results, or do we sometimes actually underreact?

The betting markets help us monitor and understand the informed public’s view on teams and how they change throughout the season.

For example, after one round of Premier League matches this season, only 4 teams – Manchester City, Southampton, Bournemouth and Watford – are now predicted to deviate by 1 point or more from their pre-season prediction. In other words, these teams have been either significantly upgraded or downgraded in the view of the betting markets. 

Meanwhile, Manchester United’s thrashing of Chelsea and the great start for Graham Potter at Brighton may have grabbed the headlines but has had little impact on how the market thinks they will fare over the rest of the season.

If we look historically, teams that did have surprisingly good starts – where the global view of that team improved – often tended to still further outperform expectations over the rest of the season. The opposite was true for teams that had disappointing starts – they often failed to match even their downgraded expectations.

The natural inclination is not to overreact to early-season results. However, we actually learn a lot of information from the opening stages of a season, and it is important as a club to be nimble to those learnings. What we can take from the betting market is not just to get a sense check on where our team is heading, but also to think like traders, and respond appropriately to good and bad results.

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About Guy Rogers

Guy Rogers has created 7 entries.