Squeaky bum time
So we have a title race on our hands! Well, at least in the Premier League.
Excitement in any title race lies in its inherent uncertainty, at least for those impartial onlookers. Less so perhaps for those clubs involved, where bums are likely to stay squeaky right up until the last match.
Take the Premier League title race, for example. Our League Projection model gives Man City an 68% chance of winning the league, with Liverpool at 32%. The cumulation of the expected points for the remaining fixtures gives Man City 92 points, with Liverpool falling just short at 91 points.
So it literally could ‘come down to the final day’.
Of course, anything could – and probably will – happen, such is the unpredictable nature of football. Thankfully nothing is certain, hence the game’s timeless allure.
Yet despite such uncertainty, adopting a probabilistic mindset is the smart play in football – irrespective of your context. As leaders we need to know where we’re likely to finish at the end of the season – our chances of relegation, the likelihood of qualifying for Europe, our exposure on bonus payouts, what might happen if we sign this player – if we’re to plan effectively.
Suddenly, with this predictive intelligence, we’re not looking back (“have we gotten what we deserve so far this season?”) but looking forward (“where are we likely to finish, based on the quality of our team and the remaining fixtures?”). The conversation changes from descriptive to predictive. We open up a whole new world of possibility.
And while we can’t guarantee that our new League Projections model will make bums any less squeaky, it can certainly help us better understand the future.