The sport that we think we know
We put the following questions to our team at 21st Club this week:
Though the questions are incredibly simple – and about a sport we’ve each followed religiously for decades – no one got all the questions right to within the margin of error. Many of you will no doubt fail to get one or two correct, too.
This exercise in itself is a little trivial, but it does show that we don’t always have the best intuitive grasp of this sport that we all know and love.
And because of that, we might not have the best intuitive grasp of more important questions, like:
- What are the chances our record signing plays over 50% of minutes?
- What % of teams in our position avoid relegation?
- What is the typical maximum improvement in points per game for clubs that change their manager mid-season?
- What is the probability one of our under-18s provides a financial return on investment?
The answers to these questions can influence multi-million dollar decisions, and yet we often rely on our intuition to guide us – the same intuition that isn’t quite certain about the pattern of throw ins even though we’ve watched tens of thousands in our lifetime.
Objective information can point our gut in the right direction, and ensure that we’re that little bit smarter about the sport we think we know.