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A season in reflection

Back in August, we kicked off the European season with a blog about how clubs should seek an ‘outside view’ when setting expectations for the new season. The short piece was inspired by one of our favourite authors, Daniel Kahneman, who – in Thinking Fast and Slow (a must read for the summer if you haven’t already!) – commented: “the illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future”.

Kahneman’s words seem especially relevant in a season of underdogs and surprises. Our congratulations go to Leicester City for their incredible achievement in winning the Premier League. They deserve the utmost respect and yet their feat also validates our belief that you don’t necessarily have to outspent your rivals in order to win – you can outthink them. Indeed, our recent post on taking stock towards the end of the season, shows that Leicester were not alone in their ability to overachieve relative to resources. Inspiration for clubs ahead of next season that scarcity often breeds innovation and how underdogs can prevail.

During the 2015 summer transfer window, we also encouraged club boardrooms to ‘make three rules’ in the player recruitment due diligence process. Although not our intention at the time, the framework proved to be a good predictor of transfer success this season and so we would encourage clubs to adopt similar approaches in the upcoming window – to help nudge the odds of transfer success in their favour.

Meanwhile, here are the three blogs that resonated with you most during the season (calculated by open rate and shares):

  1. Football, not Moneyball
  2. The cost of going nowhere
  3. 12 Angry Men

If you didn’t get the chance initially, hopefully you’ll find time during the summer to have a read.

This is in fact the 86th edition of our weekly Evolution blog, the purpose of which hasn’t changed since our first post in August 2014: to challenge your thinking, spark internal debate and ultimately improve your decision making process. We strive to keep the blogs relevant, punchy and insightful.

We would love to hear your feedback and what’s been invaluable to you this season. If you’d like to share, feel free to email us.

It’s a privilege to write for and work with you. Have a safe and restful summer (where possible!).

Best wishes,

The 21st Club team

About Blake Wooster

Blake Wooster has created 66 entries.