Even the best plans
In 1994, a group of psychology students nearing the end of their honours thesis were asked how long they thought their project would take to submit. Just 30% finished in their predicted time, and the average prediction was 22 days too short.
In 2002, US homeowners who were remodelling their kitchens were asked how much they thought the task would cost. Their average estimate was $18,658. The actual cost averaged at $36,769.
And in 2005, the budget for the London Olympics was estimated to be £2.4 billion. Just two years later, the budget was revised to £9.3 billion; a fourfold increase.
Similarly, in football, even the best plans in the world will not come to fruition exactly as you intended. Things will change, players will come-and-go, get injured or not realise their full potential. Others may surprise you – hopefully a product of your long-term investment in youth.
This is why we love the game; its charm lies in its inherent unpredictability. If everything went to forecast, then our lives in football would surely be less interesting.
No question, however, we must also be thinking about the big picture: begin with the end in mind. Can we visualise the future? What type of club do we want to be? What does success look like for us? And how can we measure it?
By crystallising your blueprint for success, it becomes much easier to figure out contingencies when unforeseen things happen. And they will, inevitably.
Part of the plan should be accepting that things hardly ever go to plan. And now you can plan for that.