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Succession Planning

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  • 28 Sep 2017

    The security-opportunity fallacy

    It’s often suggested that a consequence of lack of managerial job security is a lack of opportunities for young players. After all, if a head coach is fearful of losing his job, why would he take on a perceived risk?

    However, the evidence suggests that this isn’t the case. In the big 5 European leagues, managers […]

  • 31 Aug 2017

    The rule of thumb

    Following the 2008 financial crash, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane looked into what factors caused the crisis. He discovered that breaching the regulations set out in Basel II – a complex 347-page document that attempted to ensure banks remained safe – proved a less effective predictor of failure than a crude rule of […]

  • 13 Jul 2017

    An unwanted record

    Earlier this week we launched Acquisition, our new product that helps football clubs mitigate risk and maximise success in the transfer market. Acquisition was born out of us seeing the level of inefficiency in player trading and wanting to help clubs make smarter decisions with their money.

    For a good example of how money is often […]

  • 14 Jun 2017

    Lessons from the NBA

    The recently completed 2016/17 NBA season was the first to pass without a single head coach being fired since 1970/71. Given that the league saw 18 in-season sackings between 2012 and 2016, the current stability of NBA coaching jobs is unprecedented in the modern era. It remains to be seen whether 2016/17 will stand as […]

  • 27 Apr 2017

    Breaking the cycle of reactivity

    Given that the average managerial tenure in the English Football League is just 1.3 years, we should be constantly monitoring the availability and suitability of potential future managers or head coaches.

    Even if a club has no immediate intention of changing their manager, coaching turnover is high across football and it pays to be ready for […]

  • 23 Feb 2017

    A balancing act

    Squad-building is never a straightforward task; while accounting for size, you also have to consider cost, value and potential future performance.

    It’s also useful to consider the distribution of performance across the team; how good does our best player have to be relative to our tenth-best player, is there a cost to inequality in talent in […]

  • 15 Dec 2016

    Where should we loan him?

    Loaning out a young player comes with risk. There is no guarantee it will continue his development any better than staying at ‘home’, not to mention the uncertainties around putting him at the mercy of often unknown coaches, players and physios.

    However, without some risk there is often no reward, so the question turns to finding […]

  • 10 Nov 2016

    How many players do we need?

    Implicit in all the decisions around player trading and youth promotion is a prediction about the depth of squad needed to compete during the season. Some clubs hope to go deep in all competitions, others are content at prioritising the league.

    Given the average footballer’s annual pay is a deeply material cost to the club, it […]

  • 08 Sep 2016

    The evolution of Barcelona

    In May 2008, the forecast looked bleak for FC Barcelona. The Catalans had just finished the season 18 points off champions Real Madrid, who had sealed back-to-back titles for the first time in nearly two decades.

    We all know what happened next: Pep Guardiola was promoted from B team duties, led the club to two Champions […]