Prediction

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  • 16 Feb 2017

    Superforecasters

    If I asked you how likely your new January signing was to be a success, what would you say?Assuming you acquired an established player your natural instinct is that you really want your new signing to play every match between now and the end of the season - to boost your chances of survival or […]
  • 13 Oct 2016

    Confidently wrong

    One of the challenges in prediction - or indeed estimating anything where there are a number of unknowns - is that we all suffer from overconfidence. It’s the reason why 93% of drivers think they’re better than average or that project planning often underestimates the real completion time.Equally, imagine a poll asking the CEOs of […]
  • 01 Sep 2016

    An avoidable distraction

    September always brings a certain tranquility to the world of football when juxtaposed against the annual melee of deadline day.  As the clock runs down on August, buying clubs rush to bolster their squad while selling clubs look to offload their expensive, unproductive assets.  Indeed, since 2010 a remarkable 18% of business in the Premier […]
  • 11 Aug 2016

    The grey swans

    Consider each of the following events:The creation of a European Super League, leading to the collapse of domestic television rights A severe and sudden decline in attendances owing to demographic changes and the rise of other forms of live entertainment The removal of transfer fees through legal challenges from FIFPro The Chinese Super League attracting dozens of top […]
  • 04 Aug 2016

    The next 10 months

    Grab a pen and write down, in order, your predicted end-of-season table. Do it again next week, after one round of results, and again the following week, and so on until May.August is the obvious time to be setting targets, but it needn’t stop on day one. Take the example of Watford last season.Before […]
  • 07 Jan 2016

    The 2016 forecast

    As well as reflection on the past, the new year also brings anticipation of the future.So below, in no particular order, are some of our predictions for 2016:Tottenham will qualify for the Champions League for the second time in their history: our model predicts that they have a 76% chance of finishing in the top […]
  • 16 Sep 2015

    Four facts

    Four facts you should consider when planning for the future:1. The league table often lies: because football is such a low scoring sport, teams don't always get the results they deserve. This season in La Liga, for example, Getafe sit rock bottom of the league, yet they're actually the 9th best performing team in the league […]
  • 06 Aug 2015

    The outside view

    In the brilliant book Thinking Fast and Slow, author Daniel Kahneman recalls a time when he assembled an expert team to write a textbook designed to teach judgement and decision making in high schools.As part of the process, Kahneman asked everyone in the team to write down an estimate of how long it would take […]