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  • 08 Mar 2018

    The perils of day trading

    Day to day, the market valuation of a stock can fluctuate up and down like a yo-yo. Take Bitcoin right now. Whether the cryptocurrency will be up or down tomorrow is anyone’s guess, such is the sentiment volatility towards the relatively new form of exchange.

    For traders, it can be addictive. The emotional rollercoaster of something […]

  • 15 Feb 2018

    It never evens out

    We’re often told that luck will even out over a season. After all, a year is a long time, and it seems absurd that one team would repeatedly have things go their way or against them.

    However, this misunderstands the true nature of ‘luck’. True luck, or randomness, is blind to what happened before, and can […]

  • 29 Dec 2017

    A year in review

    From Mo Salah’s expected impact to the dramatic turnaround in fortunes of Fortuna Sittard, and what Chile should learn from Germany. A few standout insights from 2017:

    Of the most expensive Premier League signings, Mo Salah was projected to have a bigger impact than the likes of Morata and Lacazette – but less than Lukaku. After […]

  • 31 Aug 2017

    The rule of thumb

    Following the 2008 financial crash, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane looked into what factors caused the crisis. He discovered that breaching the regulations set out in Basel II – a complex 347-page document that attempted to ensure banks remained safe – proved a less effective predictor of failure than a crude rule of […]

  • 24 Aug 2017

    Got, expected, deserved, need

    During the early stages of the season, when the league table often lies, it can be easy to over- or underreact to results. As such, it helps to have some objective information on how the season has and might progress.

    We recommend focusing on four key metrics:

    How many points have we got? (Points per game)

  • 04 May 2017

    The undeserving champion

    “We need in football this type of luck,” said Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp of Emre Can’s improbable goal against Watford on Monday. A loss for Liverpool would have cut their chances of a top four finish to 62%; a little more than a coin flip. As it was, Liverpool’s win gave them a 90% chance […]

  • 02 Mar 2017

    The Leicester City problem

    Last week’s sacking of Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri evoked an understandably fervent response. Many felt that having won the league, the Italian deserved the opportunity to continue his tenureship, while others simply felt that in a results business he had failed to assure the club that he was still the right man for the […]

  • 29 Sep 2016

    The early indicators

    In the opening weeks of the season, it is desperately difficult to gauge the state of affairs. Not only are new players settling in, the skew of the fixture calendar can make some teams appear better or worse than they are.

    We can use two composite metrics to give us an early sense of how well […]

  • 28 Apr 2016

    Taking stock

    During the season, we spend so much time in ‘push mode’ that we can forget to celebrate what went well or to evaluate why. “You’re only as good as your last game!”, or so the saying goes.  We tend to take stock only at the end of the season, when we finally get a chance […]

  • 20 Apr 2016

    The Barcelona Problem

    It’s been a difficult month for Barcelona. Three consecutive league defeats and a Champions League exit mean they are football’s current crisis club. The odds of enduring such a miserable run would have been around 2,500 to 1; outlier results this extreme at any club always demand serious examination.

    The first step for clubs in this […]