Following the 2008 financial crash, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane looked into what factors caused the crisis. He discovered that breaching the regulations set out in Basel II – a complex 347-page document that attempted to ensure banks remained safe – proved a less effective predictor of failure than a crude rule of […]
During the early stages of the season, when the league table often lies, it can be easy to over- or underreact to results. As such, it helps to have some objective information on how the season has and might progress.
We recommend focusing on four key metrics:
How many points have we got? (Points per game)
“We need in football this type of luck,” said Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp of Emre Can’s improbable goal against Watford on Monday. A loss for Liverpool would have cut their chances of a top four finish to 62%; a little more than a coin flip. As it was, Liverpool’s win gave them a 90% chance […]
Last week’s sacking of Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri evoked an understandably fervent response. Many felt that having won the league, the Italian deserved the opportunity to continue his tenureship, while others simply felt that in a results business he had failed to assure the club that he was still the right man for the […]
In the opening weeks of the season, it is desperately difficult to gauge the state of affairs. Not only are new players settling in, the skew of the fixture calendar can make some teams appear better or worse than they are.
We can use two composite metrics to give us an early sense of how well […]
During the season, we spend so much time in ‘push mode’ that we can forget to celebrate what went well or to evaluate why. “You’re only as good as your last game!”, or so the saying goes. We tend to take stock only at the end of the season, when we finally get a chance […]
It’s been a difficult month for Barcelona. Three consecutive league defeats and a Champions League exit mean they are football’s current crisis club. The odds of enduring such a miserable run would have been around 2,500 to 1; outlier results this extreme at any club always demand serious examination.
The first step for clubs in this […]
Intuition has historically been a decision-maker’s best friend in business and sport. Then data came along and the value of intuition seemingly diminished – an objective challenger to the notion that we’re capable of understanding something immediately without the need for conscious reasoning or numbers.
The commonly held assumption that intuition is nothing more than pure […]
- Arguably the story of the season across European football is the rise of Leicester City. After winning 41 points in 2014-15, they’re on course for more than 70 this season and remain in the running for the league title.Leicester are a clear case of a team that is knowingly better
- Your next match is urgent.Your position at the end of the season is important.