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  • 28 Sep 2017

    The security-opportunity fallacy

    It’s often suggested that a consequence of lack of managerial job security is a lack of opportunities for young players. After all, if a head coach is fearful of losing his job, why would he take on a perceived risk?

    However, the evidence suggests that this isn’t the case. In the big 5 European leagues, managers […]

  • 31 Aug 2017

    The rule of thumb

    Following the 2008 financial crash, Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane looked into what factors caused the crisis. He discovered that breaching the regulations set out in Basel II – a complex 347-page document that attempted to ensure banks remained safe – proved a less effective predictor of failure than a crude rule of […]

  • 14 Jun 2017

    Lessons from the NBA

    The recently completed 2016/17 NBA season was the first to pass without a single head coach being fired since 1970/71. Given that the league saw 18 in-season sackings between 2012 and 2016, the current stability of NBA coaching jobs is unprecedented in the modern era. It remains to be seen whether 2016/17 will stand as […]

  • 27 Apr 2017

    Breaking the cycle of reactivity

    Given that the average managerial tenure in the English Football League is just 1.3 years, we should be constantly monitoring the availability and suitability of potential future managers or head coaches.

    Even if a club has no immediate intention of changing their manager, coaching turnover is high across football and it pays to be ready for […]

  • 06 Apr 2017

    The impact manager

    We know from our research that, in the long run, managerial changes on average make little difference to the performance of a team. That isn’t to say, however, that smart hires can’t turn a struggling team around.

    When we look through our database of managers who did improve performance in their first 20 matches in charge, […]

  • 02 Mar 2017

    The Leicester City problem

    Last week’s sacking of Leicester City manager Claudio Ranieri evoked an understandably fervent response. Many felt that having won the league, the Italian deserved the opportunity to continue his tenureship, while others simply felt that in a results business he had failed to assure the club that he was still the right man for the […]

  • 05 Jan 2016

    Football’s failure in philosophy

    In any ordinary organisation, philosophical alignment is a key factor in success. If the people on the shop floor can endorse the organisation’s vision, the people in head office have a greater chance of achieving it. It is for this reason that much time, energy and money is spent on communicating the organisation’s vision to those that will help to achieve it.