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Luck

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  • 24 Aug 2017

    Got, expected, deserved, need

    During the early stages of the season, when the league table often lies, it can be easy to over- or underreact to results. As such, it helps to have some objective information on how the season has and might progress.

    We recommend focusing on four key metrics:

    How many points have we got? (Points per game)
    How many […]

  • 04 May 2017

    The undeserving champion

    “We need in football this type of luck,” said Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp of Emre Can’s improbable goal against Watford on Monday. A loss for Liverpool would have cut their chances of a top four finish to 62%; a little more than a coin flip. As it was, Liverpool’s win gave them a 90% chance […]

  • 22 May 2015

    When a champion looks like a loser

    The conventional wisdom at the end of a season is that ‘the league table never lies’. The best team will always be champions, the worst team always bottom. This wisdom, however, is a contradiction to the comments we routinely hear after tight matches. “I thought we were the better team” or "I thought we were a bit lucky" have become stock answers to post-match questions.
  • 17 Sep 2014

    Why intuition need not be a dirty word in football analytics

    The incomparable Mike Goodman wrote an excellent summary of the state of analytics *ahem* over at Grantland last week. In giving us a snapshot of the current advances in football analytics, Goodman makes the crucial distinction between data and analytics. As a rule, the former tells you what happened, while the latter helps tell you what, to varying degrees, will likely happen.