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Cognitive biases

Currently browsing: Cognitive biases
  • 12 Apr 2018

    The irony of Moneyball

    The irony of Moneyball is that it is a story, and the Oakland A’s management hated stories.

    That story is now well-told:

    The antagonists – old school scouts – used narratives (“ugly girlfriend”, “presence”, “a tools guy”) to draw conclusions on players.
    The protagonists – Bill James, Billy Beane and sabermetricians – used data to try […]

  • 05 Apr 2018

    The big game error

    After identifying a player that has the potential improve our team, we often want to see how he responds in different circumstances. How does he perform away from home, for example, or in matches where the team is expected to dominate? We often place a lot of value in a player’s ability to step up […]

  • 01 Mar 2018

    Attack, attack, attack

    Last Wednesday, Roma led 1-0 at half time against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League. Their coach Eusebio di Francesco urged his team to continue attacking; not only had they outshot the Ukranians 9-4, they’d created by far the better chances. Roma had an opportunity to put the tie to bed.

    Within seven second half minutes […]

  • 31 May 2017

    The importance of self-awareness

    In a recent article for The Guardian, Oliver Burkeman reported on some of the work being done by Tasha Eurich, an organisational psychologist, author and expert on the subject of self-awareness.
    According to Eurich, 95% of people think they’re self-aware but only 10-15% of us really are. If we’re not self-aware then we only have a […]

  • 24 May 2017

    Because thinking is hard

    Back in January we wrote about some of the cognitive biases that can hinder our better judgement when recruiting new players. For example, we might overvalue experience – because know-how feels safe and so we assume it’s important – or be overly optimistic about a new player because we desperately want the signing to work out.
    Since […]

  • 10 Dec 2014

    The $999,999 question

    A curious thing happens when a player hits 30. Ten of the most expensive signings ever made have been of players aged 28 or 29, but only one player in this subset was bought after his 30th birthday - the 31-year-old Gabriel Batistuta in 2000. This is a severe drop-off, no doubt influenced by the fact that it is much easier to convince ourselves of the value of a deal when a key characteristic falls just below a significant number.