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The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future
DANIEL KAHNEMAN – Author of Thinking, Fast and Slow

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  • 22 Feb 2018

    Apples to apples

    The European Golden Boot is an annual award recognising the best goalscorer in club football in Europe. It was initially awarded every season to the player who scored the most goals in European first divisions.

    The early awardees were a mix of household names, such as Marco van Basten, and relative unknowns, such as Cypriot […]

  • 15 Feb 2018

    It never evens out

    We’re often told that luck will even out over a season. After all, a year is a long time, and it seems absurd that one team would repeatedly have things go their way or against them.

    However, this misunderstands the true nature of ‘luck’. True luck, or randomness, is blind to what happened before, and can […]

  • 08 Feb 2018

    Opportunity knocks

    It seems hard to believe that only a few months ago, Nick Foles was just another forgotten NFL quarterback mooching around on the sidelines waiting for his chance. On Sunday, the newly-crowned Super Bowl MVP spearheaded the Philadelphia Eagles to victory against the more-fancied New England Patriots, having grasped the opportunity only when the team’s […]

  • 01 Feb 2018

    The right science

    There is a lot that we can learn from seeing how the same challenges are faced and resolved in a different context. We often look to other industries to identify whether there are any approaches that may be applied to football.

    An asset management company when hiring an fund manager, for example, will seek out a […]

  • 25 Jan 2018

    The Money League trend

    The 21st annual Deloitte Money League report highlights the rate of financial growth at the top of the game, with revenues up 6% in the top 20 and as much as 58% for Leicester City and 46% for Internazionale.

    Combined with our own World Super League, which ranks teams globally in one ‘league table’ based on […]

  • 18 Jan 2018

    The squad behind the squad

    The focus at this time of year is often on investing in players who can help us win in the short-term. However, it is investment in non-playing staff that ultimately creates the processes and culture that drive sustainable success.

    Investing in non-playing staff is rarely straightforward. Firstly, there’s the pressure to win the next game […]

  • 11 Jan 2018

    Selling our Coutinho

    Selling our best player is an immensely difficult decision. We are naturally loss averse, and want to protect what we have. We imagine all the things that could go wrong without them. This is even harder in January, when it is felt the disruption is magnified.

    Key decision makers at Liverpool probably went through this process […]

  • 04 Jan 2018

    Predictions for 2018

    After reviewing the year that has been, we’ve made some predictions for 2018:

    Don’t expect miracles, Liverpool

    The world’s most expensive defender, Virgil van Dijk, will have a limited impact on Liverpool’s defensive output. Our Player Contribution model expects the Reds to concede 2 fewer goals per season with the Dutchman as a regular starter. In truth, […]

  • 29 Dec 2017

    A year in review

    From Mo Salah’s expected impact to the dramatic turnaround in fortunes of Fortuna Sittard, and what Chile should learn from Germany. A few standout insights from 2017:

    Of the most expensive Premier League signings, Mo Salah was projected to have a bigger impact than the likes of Morata and Lacazette – but less than Lukaku. After […]

  • 21 Dec 2017

    That winning feeling

    There’s the story of a football club that wanted to learn more about their supporters’ matchday experience. After each game, they asked a selection of match-going fans what they thought of the atmosphere during the game, the view from their seat, their ease of buying food and drink, and so on. They asked the fans […]