Omar Chaudhuri

  • 03 Aug 2017

    The value of Lukaku

    As an industry, one of our biggest challenges is determining value in the transfer market. Valuations are often done on gut feel, or skewed by recent deals (which in turn are often done on gut feel, and so on). We also know that having a smart starting point can have a strong impact on the […]
  • 13 Jul 2017

    An unwanted record

    Earlier this week we launched Acquisition, our new product that helps football clubs mitigate risk and maximise success in the transfer market. Acquisition was born out of us seeing the level of inefficiency in player trading and wanting to help clubs make smarter decisions with their money.For a good example of how money is often […]
  • 06 Jul 2017

    Finding undervalued talent

    As a football industry we’ve been trying harder and harder in recent years to find ‘undervalued talent’, with mixed success.Broadly, there are two approaches we can take. The first is bottom-up; finding traits or actions that our competitors dismiss, but actually tells us more about a player. For example, valuing the quality and quantity of […]
  • 29 Jun 2017

    Definitely probably

    In 1964, the CIA’s Sherman Kent tried to bridge the gap between ‘poets’ and ‘mathematicians’ when discussing the likelihood of certain events. He proposed that a phrase like ‘probable’ should represent an event with a 75% chance of taking place, while a phrase like ‘we doubt’ should be around a 30% chance.His study inspired a […]
  • 22 Jun 2017

    The challenge of scouting Ajax

    Ajax’s impressive run to the Europa League final alerted clubs across Europe to the potential of the young players in their squad, and suggested to many that they had the temperament as well as the skill to compete in bigger leagues.While clubs have access to video as well as the ability to watch Ajax’s players […]
  • 08 Jun 2017

    How to spend it

    When deciding how to improve our squad over the summer, we often have to choose between prioritising defence and attack. In the last four years, clubs have spent just over 75% of transfer fees on midfielders and attackers, which suggests that at the very least clubs are prepared to pay more for attacking talent (perhaps […]
  • 19 May 2017

    The breadth-depth compromise

    In an ideal world we would scout every footballer on the planet and have full knowledge of each player’s suitability for our club. However, limited resources mean we have to strike a compromise between the breadth and depth of our search:Prioritise breadth: by scouting many players, we reduce the risk of missing out on talent, […]
  • 04 May 2017

    The undeserving champion

    “We need in football this type of luck,” said Liverpool manager Jürgen Klopp of Emre Can’s improbable goal against Watford on Monday. A loss for Liverpool would have cut their chances of a top four finish to 62%; a little more than a coin flip. As it was, Liverpool’s win gave them a 90% chance […]
  • 20 Apr 2017

    Rating our scouts

    Player recruitment is a process that should ideally combine objectivity and subjectivity. Both aspects, however, should regularly come under suitable scrutiny and review: we should question whether we are looking at the right data, and we should question the predictions of our scouts.While the former can require detailed statistical checks, the latter needn’t be an […]
  • 06 Apr 2017

    The impact manager

    We know from our research that, in the long run, managerial changes on average make little difference to the performance of a team. That isn’t to say, however, that smart hires can’t turn a struggling team around.When we look through our database of managers who did improve performance in their first 20 matches in charge, […]